The common wisdom has been for quite a while now that if the House impeaches, the GOP Senate would be a solid wall of defense and it would all stop cold right there. For a long time that appeared true.
But there is at least some reason now to suspect that maybe, things are changing.
When the news of Whistle Blower complaint first surfaced, Trump and his people tried to stonewall. They tried call the Whistle Blower a biased deep state plant and a liar. People demanded to see the actual complaint.
Then the Senate voted 100 – 0 to call for release of the complaint. That vote did NOT happen without McConnell’s support and approval. The complaint was made public and it was solid and damning.
So then the White House decided (after internal contention) to release the “transcript” on the theory it would vindicate Trump. It didn’t, it confirmed the complaint. It was even more damning. Trump claims McConnell told him the call was “perfect.” Who knows what McConnell really said, but its clear it was anything but perfect. And McConnell had to know that.
Now Trump goes out on the Whitehouse lawn and repeats the crime in full public view and things just get worse. McConnell claims he will be the decisive defender in the Senate.
But now, we have several things. Two sources, (Mike Murphy and Jeff Flake) saying there are 30-35 GOP votes to remove Trump if they could vote in secret. Then we have Romney publicly blasting Trump, followed by Trump going ballistic, calling for Romney to be impeached. Note to Trump, Senators can’t be impeached.
Now, maybe that’s just Romney being Romney. But it would not surprise me at all to know that McConnell knew about that in advance and quietly gave it his blessing behind the scenes. Meant to send a message to Trump.
McConnell will continue to publicly say he’s rock solid behind Trump. But he’s also nothing, if not devious. And think what you want about him, he does think long term. If McConnell began to think the he had to chose between protecting Trump, or protecting his Senate majority, he would opt to try and protect the Senate, not Trump. That would require that he concludes that Trump is a lost cause, but his majority is not. The worst case for him would be to lose both.
Then one last added thing. Cracks are beginning to appear at Fox News. Most notably today with Tucker Carlson who found the public requests for foreign interference “indefensible.” He wouldn’t go so far as to say “impeachable” but he stopped just short. I’m also hearing that no Republicans want to go on the Sunday shows in the morning to defend Trump.
Add all that together and Trump right now may be on VERY thin ice. Much thinner than he realizes. And his usual tactic of lashing out, going “all in”, may now be working against him, but I don’t think he can stop himself. He’s driven away any advisors would try and stop him, so there is not much to hold him back.
It’s also clear that Biden is the candidate Trump most fears. Of course, if he self-destructs, that may not matter anymore.
We shall see. This could all move very fast.
Edit: And then we have this, Susan Collins today. “Susan Collins: Trump made 'big mistake' in asking China to probe Biden”
Edits made to the timeline here. A commentor (tamar) pointed out that I had the subject of the vote wrong. It was on the complaint, not the “transcript”. The “transcript” came later, but its also clear that the “transcript” is not at all complete.