As we approach the 2016 election cycle, it’s worth remembering a bit of history. Only once in the 75 years since WW II has one party held the White House for more than eight consecutive years.
That exception of course was George H.W. Bush succeeding Reagan, and that for only 4 years. Outside of Roosevelt/Truman, the last time one party held the White House for more than 12 years goes back to the turn of the 20th Century. McKinley/ Roosevelt/ Taft held the White House then for 16 years.
What seems clear from post war history is that after 8 years, voters tend to forget what they didn’t like about the other guys and are very open to “it’s time for a change.” Bush won in 1988 more by demolishing the idea of Michael Dukakis as a desirable change rather than by arguing for staying the course set by Reagan.
So anyone who thinks Democrats have a strong inherent edge in 2016 needs to think again. Yes, for reasons we all know there does seem to be a chance for Democrats to succeed. The demographic shifts are helping and the best chance would come with a GOP nominee like Ted Cruz who could be demolished much as Dukakis was. But with a less flawed candidate that won’t be so easy.